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Preface
6
Contents
8
Chapter 1: Fundamental of Rail Transportation Active Safety
11
1.1 Research Paradigm of Rail Transportation Active Safety
11
1.1.1 Concepts and Methodologies
11
1.1.2 Research Architecture
12
1.2 Literature Review
14
1.2.1 Safety Region Estimation Theory and Methods
14
1.2.2 State Identification and Predication of Train Equipment
17
1.2.2.1 Safety State Analysis of Equipment
18
1.2.2.2 State Monitoring and Evaluation of Wheel Rolling Bearings
21
1.2.3 Train Safety and Reliability Evaluation
24
1.3 Research Work of AuthorsĀ“ Group
26
References
29
Chapter 2: Safety Region Based Active Safety Methods
34
2.1 Safety Region Analysis Model
34
2.1.1 Basic Concepts
34
2.1.2 Processing Procedures
40
2.1.3 Computation Methods
41
2.2 Safety Region Based Accident-Causing Model
46
2.2.1 Concepts and Procedures
47
2.2.1.1 Definition of Safety Region
47
2.2.1.2 Analysis of Accident-Causing Model
49
2.2.2 Case Study
52
2.2.2.1 The Wenzhou Train Collision Accident Analysis
53
2.2.2.2 Specified Application of the Safety Control Measures
57
2.2.2.3 Corresponding Prevention Measures
60
References
61
Chapter 3: Train Equipment Fault Diagnosis and Prognosis
63
3.1 Fault Diagnosis of Rolling Bearings Based on Safety Region
63
3.1.1 The Configuration and Faults of Rolling Bearings
63
3.1.2 Rolling Bearings Vibration Mechanism
63
3.1.3 Procedure of the Safety Region Identification of Rolling Bearings
64
3.1.4 LMD of the Vibration Signal of Rolling Bearings
65
3.1.5 Safety Region Feature Extraction of Rolling Bearings
71
3.1.6 The Safety Region Identification of Rolling Bearings Based on SVM
75
3.2 Degradation Assessment of Rolling Bearings Based on SVDD
105
3.2.1 Support Vector Data Description
105
3.2.2 Particle Swarm Algorithm Based on Dynamic Weight Adjustment
108
3.2.3 Research on the Self-Adaptation Warning
111
3.2.4 Case Study
111
3.3 Fault Diagnosis of Door System Based on the Extended Petri Net
116
3.3.1 Subway Train Door: Open Process Analysis
116
3.3.2 Subway Train Door System Fault Diagnosis Theory and Method
116
3.3.3 Case Study
120
References
124
Chapter 4: Train Reliability and Safety Analysis
126
4.1 Introduction
126
4.1.1 Reliability and Safety Standards of European Railway System
126
4.1.2 System of Train Operational Reliability and Safety Analysis
127
4.1.2.1 Data
127
4.1.2.2 System Reliability Assessment
128
4.1.2.3 System Safety Assessment
128
4.1.3 Procedure of Train Operational Reliability and Safety Assessment
128
4.2 Reliability Analysis and Prediction of Bogie Frame
130
4.2.1 Reliability Analysis of Bogie Frame Based on Survival Analysis
130
4.2.1.1 Survival Analysis Theory
130
4.2.1.2 Maximum Likelihood Estimation
131
4.2.1.3 Goodness of Fit Test
132
4.2.2 Failure Rate Prediction of Bogie Frame Based on BP and PSO-BP Methods
132
4.2.2.1 BP Neural Network
132
4.2.2.2 Basic Principles of PSO
133
4.2.2.3 PSO-BP Prediction Model
133
4.2.3 Case Study
134
4.2.3.1 Analysis of Bogie Frame
134
4.2.3.2 Prediction of Failure Rate
137
4.3 Residual Life Prediction of Rolling Bearings Based on GA-BP
139
4.3.1 Residual Life Prediction Model of Rolling Bearings Based on GA-BP
139
4.3.2 Case Study
141
4.4 Operational Risk Assessment of High Speed Train
146
4.4.1 Basic Challenges of High Speed Train Operational Risk Assessment
150
4.4.1.1 Construction of High Speed Train Operational Risk Assessment Index System
151
4.4.1.2 Applications of TFNIFS in the Risk Assessment Index System
154
4.4.1.3 Correlation Risk Index
156
4.4.2 Dynamic VIKOR Method for High Speed Train Operational Risk Assessment
159
4.4.3 Case Study
163
References
171
Chapter 5: Operational Risk Analysis of Rail Transportation Network
173
5.1 Operational Risk Assessment Model
173
5.1.1 Operational Safety Assessment Index System of Metro Station
174
5.1.2 Operational Safety Assessment Index System of Traffic Line
177
5.1.3 Operational Safety Assessment Index System of Traffic Network
178
5.2 Operational Risk Prediction Model
179
5.2.1 Safety State Prediction Based on ARMA Model
182
5.2.2 Safety State Prediction Based on GA-SVR Model
184
5.3 Case Study
190
5.3.1 Case Study on ARMA Model
190
5.3.2 Case Study on GA-SVR Model
191
References
197
Chapter 6: Safety Prognostic Analysis in Traffic System
199
6.1 Traffic Operation Risk Analysis Model Based on Safety Region
199
6.1.1 Sequential Forward Selection and Principal Components Analysis
199
6.1.2 Computation Procedure
200
6.1.3 Case Study
201
6.1.3.1 Data Description
201
6.1.3.2 State Variable Extraction
202
6.1.3.3 Traffic Safety State Identification
203
6.2 Traffic Crash Risk Evaluation Model Based on Reliability Theory
206
6.2.1 Structural Reliability Analysis Theory
206
6.2.2 Analysis Procedure
208
6.2.3 Case Study
209
6.2.3.1 State Variable Selection
209
6.2.3.2 State Variable of Traffic System
210
6.2.3.3 Limited State Function Estimation
211
6.2.3.4 Test Results Analysis
213
References
216
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